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As ever, I will be keeping a close and beady eye on the market movers and shakers and provide my sage summarised comments. To put it simply I crashed and burnt last year, bring just about the onlyperson who failed to see any merit in the Danish winner. I still hold to the fact that the song stinks, and indeed it sullied my predictive streak. As such I find myself having to follow the bookies this year, with the twin favourites of Armenia and Sweden. My heart may say France and Norway, but no amount of analysis points me in any other direction. For a third place the rehearsals are going to give a solid guide to those that have any chance of success at all. Until then my heart is saying the simplicity of the Norway who are available at 14/1 (from sky bet) is a decent shout, not least because of the massive levels of support during the national selection season. If it's something slightly different you're after which are also at longer odds then how about the ever dependable diaspora of Greece (40/1) or the over performing Albania (125/1). 2013: My tips Russia (Win 14/1 - 5th),
Netherlands (Each Way 14/1 - 9th), Spain (last
place 12/1 - 25th of 26) So what do I reckon? As usual it's a crap shoot, but good luck in your random acts of betting... |
| Average Odds
taken from a selection of online UK bookmakers - dated 18th April |
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| Average Odds |
Notes |
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| Armenia | 6/4 |
Takes a minute to start but seems to please enough to have been odds-on. Question marks remain though |
| Sweden | 5/2 |
She'll leave it all onstage alright, the only problem is there may not by enough substance to fill it |
| Denmark | 8/1 |
I'm starting to dislike Denmark. Another bland example of pop-lite Bruno Mars on the cheap. Horrid. likely top5. |
| Hungary | 12/1 |
As you know the subject of child abuse is always a family singalong favourite& esp.with scantily clad dancing |
| Norway | 14/1 |
In the canon of low-key quality ESC songs, this is a pearl. The tattoed carpenter deserves to be near the top |
| UK | 14/1 |
Doctor! Section me! We find the UK both near the top in predictions & at the bookies. Is top 10 possible? Gulp |
| Ukraine | 14/1 |
Under-produced low rent youtube kids tv which will have the usual Ukraine make-over to elevate it to top 10 |
| Azerbaijan | 16/1 |
The nation have a Top10 debenture now so expect this mid-level ballard to justify the paltry odds |
| Romania | 16/1 |
Never go back. Moon faced, leather chaps clad Paula will power warble her way into an gimmick laden top10 |
| Belgium | 20/1 |
Jacques Renault's illegitimate son loves his mum, which as you will imagine, is deeply unsettling. Avoid. |
| Austria | 33/1 |
Talking about unsettling, a dame with a beard as heavy as the elastic in her knickers. Mainstream difficulties? |
| Italy | 40/1 |
Lots of attitude, a fair amount of style, some song quality, questionable singing ability, dodgy presentation. |
| Russia | 40/1 |
A watershed to see if the average ESC viewer follows news. Saccharine act representing a soured nation |
| Greece | 40/1 |
The loudest & bounciest act of an otherwise quiet year will help, as will the ex-pats. The song is the problem. |
| Spain | 50/1 |
Like egg&chips in Murcia, a bland English product with a dusting of paprika spice. Strong voice, weak song. |
| Ireland | 50/1 |
In a weak year, this strongly sung generic Oirish pop-tat could surprise. Wouldn't bother to invest though |
| Israel | 50/1 |
Popular with damp fans, fag-hag Mei seems capable but has a weak number to gargle through. I can't see it |
| Germany | 50/1 |
If this is the supposed future of ESC then I want off. This is shockingly awful. End of |
| Poland | 50/1 |
Knockabout mild porn video can't translate to the stage. Although I sincerely hope it can. Good enough for final |
| Finland | 66/1 |
The beat-pop combo of the year should glean enough to sneak it through to final, but too generic to excel |
| Estonia | 66/1 |
She cartwheels and sings simultaneously, which is enough of a trick to make a positive impression. Solid |
| Malta | 66/1 |
A nice enough effort so deserves a final place. Up against the geographical outpost issue ad infinitum |
| France | 66/1 |
Song of 2014. Super catchy nonsense, an utter mess on stage. Deserves better than the inevitable bad result |
| Moldova | 66/1 |
Tetsuo Ms Scarlat should hopefully deliver a bonkers show with added helicopter. Diversion from the song |
| Montenegro | 80/1 |
A very lonely Balkan ballard, representative tambura strumming for the region. May suffer big as a result |
| Belarus | 100/1 |
More soft cheese than a Kraft Foods warehouse. No cracker, but some fruity relish. Got it as a finalist. Just |
| Lithuania | 100/1 |
Grabs your attention in much the same way as a Lady Gaga haircut. Exuberant, daft, and a touch of the manic |
| FYROM | 100/1 |
Alright I suppose, but without the neighbours to support them, the town planners may knock down their shed |
| Netherlands | 125/1 |
Tedious C&W, with unheralded support. Confusing popularity. |
| Slovenia | 125/1 |
A nation that needs a stand out track to stand a chance. This isn't it. Not without merit. |
| Albania | 125/1 |
Conversely a nation that garners general support. A song is trying to get out, but may get muffled. |
| Iceland | 125/1 |
Right on message, and write off their chances of progressing. Wacky in a broadly unappealing way |
| Switzerland | 150/1 |
Apart from the pronunciation amusement, little to recommend. Whistling & banjo at same time limited appeal |
| San Marino | 150/1 |
Bless her. Her landlocked bolt was shot last year & a Bond-lite off-key melange unlikely to get her to Saturday |
| Portugal | 150/1 |
A low point even for the mostly tragic Portuguese. Last place in semi-1. Oh oh oh oh oh Yes! |
| Latvia | 150/1 |
Amateur student improv which is somewhat endearing at first listen. Especially drunk. Use in moderation only |
| Georgia | 150/1 |
It's jazz, Shin, but not as we know it. Down there with "Lorrain" & "Is it Right" (see above) in canon. Bereft of hope. |
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