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As ever, I will be keeping a close and beady eye on the market movers and shakers and provide my sage summarised comments. Having been successful for the last three years, 2011 is a different kettle of fish. I've narrowed it down to eleven possible winners, such is the tricky nature of this year's contest. And of all those eleven only one offers any odds of any value. That nation is Serbia which can't be expected to win but may creep into a top 4 place. 2011: My tips (To Win) Azerbaijan, UK, B&H, Hungary,
Sweden, Norway...I'll narrow it down during the rehearsals. (Each Way)
Serbia 100/1 So what do I reckon? d. As usual it's a crap shoot, but good luck in your random acts of betting... |
| Average Odds
taken from a selection of online UK bookmakers - dated 30th April |
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| Average Odds |
Notes |
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| France | 3/1 |
Just when did opera gain pan-Euro appeal? Hot favourite but I can't see it. No value here |
| Estonia | 7/1 |
Nice to see the Estonians up near the top again, but inherently plain so I don't think it has quite enough. |
| UK | 7/1 |
Even more pleasant to see the UK up top, and a definite each way chance. |
| Hungary | 10/1 |
The best song and a handy singer, but may be hampered by staid attitude. Certainly one to watch |
| Sweden | 10/1 |
Shocking, but everyone tells me it's one to beat. Can't honestly recommend even with a smashing turn |
| Azerbaijan | 12/1 |
MOR, gentle, insipid, and yet still the best all round chance of victory as it stands. |
| Norway | 12/1 |
Vapid, which isn't a particular barrier to success. Still not quite bad enough to succeed though. |
| Germany | 14/1 |
Nice try to drag Eurosong into modern pop, but we don't really want it. Top ten likely. |
| Bosnia & H | 14/1 |
My favourite track. A lively each way bet, but sadly no value. |
| Denmark | 20/1 |
Overlooked cos of Swedish media machine, but this is a better effort.2 scandi's likely to dilute their chances. |
| Russia | 22/1 |
Just missed out on top10 last year with a slightly worse song. Draw your own conclusions. |
| Ireland | 33/1 |
Who knows. Heart shouts No, Head sadly suggests otherwise. Ethically refuse to make profit on these two |
| Italy | 33/1 |
Screaming piano player for their return. Will get some sympathy votes. |
| Slovenia | 40/1 |
A grower but likely to be lost amongst the MOR pop ballards. I've given it a harsh prediction and may surprise |
| Turkey | 40/1 |
The usual +20 place rule applies, but this should place 30th on merit so won't quite hit the leaderboard. |
| Finland | 50/1 |
The only real slooow ballard of the year which is in it's favour. The quality however isn't. Not good enough |
| Austria | 50/1 |
A good voice, a so-so song. I've got it to get through to the Final, but it's on the cusp. |
| Romania | 66/1 |
A weak effort from the one of the storngest Euro nations. Scrape into the Final |
| Poland | 66/1 |
Relatively low in the betting, compared to the competition. Should make it through which is success enough |
| Serbia | 100/1 |
My initial winner, but I've been talked down since. Immediate appeal is there tho, and the only real value here |
| Switzerland | 100/1 |
Wysiwyg, albeit the Swiss are showing signs of life. May qualify, but no money is required here |
| Israel | 100/1 |
Votes will come in for her return, however not nearly enough to be at the top. |
| Georgia | 100/1 |
Rap & Shouts but not kooky nor good enough to triumph. I've got it as a qualifier though |
| Moldova | 100/1 |
For me as unwelcome as a poo in my waterpipe. Which means it'll probably be the big surprise of the evening |
| Ukraine | 100/1 |
Surprisingly weak form the strongest Euro nation. But heritage will still ensure a Saturday outing |
| Armenia | 100/1 |
Terrifyingly poor. So much so I've even got Armenia not to qualify. No.4 during Semi 1 so make a note to avoid |
| Greece | 100/1 |
Clearly a two fingers salute to Eurosong in a time where they've got more important matters to worry about |
| Latvia | 100/1 |
Latvia are building a strong body of evidence to suggest insanity in the ranks. Has fans, but they're insane too |
| Slovakia | 125/1 |
Like Ireland but with better legs. Nothing else to recommend. |
| Iceland | 150/1 |
Means a lot to Arctic dwelling people, but will pass by everyone else. Nice enough, but doomed. |
| Spain | 150/1 |
Likely to be clear bottom of the Big Five. No real hope. |
| Netherlands | 150/1 |
Like this one. Reminds me of Norway '04 which I rated and finished dead last. Hope they qualify though |
| Croatia | 150/1 |
Mid table again. Don't bother |
| Bulgaria | 150/1 |
Soft rock your Na ni na's. Not the worst, and may squeeze through to Saturday |
| Belarus | 150/1 |
Back in the USSR we go to early 70's disco extolling Communism and alienating everyone in the process |
| Albania | 150/1 |
Slightly scary nearing the bottom of the barrel Balkans. No. |
| Lithuania | 200/1 |
Tragic |
| San Marino | 200/1 |
Nice try from the land locked hamlet. I fear with one neighbour they will struggle to impress though. |
| Belgium | 200/1 |
Toe-curling. One big male instrument. |
| Portugal | 200/1 |
Aah, the joke act. In the grandest traditons, not funny in the slighest but may succeed. I just can't recommend. |
| Malta | 200/1 |
Leaping plastic Xanax induced goon. |
| Cyprus | 200/1 |
2 songs in one, the first ok'ish, the second beyond bad |
| FYROM | 250/1 |
The demise of FYROM continues apace. And they've got so much Euro goodwill too but it won't save them |
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