On this page you can see my predictions for
the final 2006, and after my personally disappointing performance in the
semi, I need to salavge some pride. So it is with not a little trepidation
that I put forward my calculations...
I looked almost scientifically at each songs' chances according to the
subjective factors of quality, position in the draw, and it's expected
performance live. From these factors I apportioned each song a percentage
chance of getting points 0-12. Lost yet? I was.
Allied to this, and slightly more scientifically, I calculated the geographical
nature of tele-voting, subject to national boundaries, past voting trends,
and apportioning a percentage chance of a certain nation voting for another,
to a total of 100% for each nation.
For example the chance of Austria voting for Portugal was 2.5%, whereas
the chance of Portugal voting for Andorra was calculated at 7.5%. Simple.
From these two spreadsheets I was able to calculate the chances of any
one nation voting for any one song at any one point in the voting procedures.
The result was the points table below. I realise it's not perfect, but
it sounds good. (I got last year Semi-finalist winner right, something
which not many other Eurogeeks predicted, to be honest).
Lorid have moshed their way to my number one position. A win by some
clear distance then for a nation that has never even tasted a podium in
Eurosong, let alone a win. I'm very afraid that my prediction machine
has finally been found wanting this year. We shall see.
I only predicted a fifth place "finnish" in the semi-finbal
for Lordi, and they swop places with Carola, who tumbles down to third.
Sandwiched between these Nordic nations is another mild surpirse in the
almost all-conquering Germans. A year of Northern dominance then (I hope),
and although Croatia, Bosnia, Greece, Ukraine, & FYROM all make the
top ten, none of them can get a medal. Even Daz gets a a good result.
Basically I've probably put to much heart rather that head into this year's
prediction.
The crowning turd in the waterpipe of Lithuania finally gets found out,
and is even beaten by the Kennedy massacre. Propping everyone up is the
crooning Israeli.
----
Well, quite frankly I failed this year with the semi-final. I only predicted
five of the ten qualifiers which is a poor show. Armenia, Ukraine, Turkey,
Lithuania & Ireland made it through, when I thought they would be
jammed at the bottom of the bargain basement bin for years to come. For
what it's worth, you can see the predictions here |