On this page you can see my predictions for
the semi-final 2006, a semi-final which was difficult to give out many points,
cos too many of the songs are pants.
I looked almost scientifically at each songs' chances according to the subjective
factors of quality, position in the draw, and it's expected performance
live. From these factors I apportioned each song a percentage chance of
getting points 0-12. Lost yet? I was.
Allied to this, and slightly more scientifically, I calculated the geographical
nature of tele-voting, subject to national boundaries, past voting trends,
and apportioning a percentage chance of a certain nation voting for another,
to a total of 100% for each nation.
For example the chance of Austria voting for Portugal was 2.5%, whereas
the chance of Portugal voting for Andorra was calculated at 7.5%. Simple.
From these two spreadsheets I was able to calculate the chances of any one
nation voting for any one song at any one point in the voting procedures.
The result was the points table below. I realise it's not perfect, but it
sounds good. (I got last year Semi-finalist winner right, something which
not many other Eurogeeks predicted, to be honest).
And it didn't spring much of a surprise at the top of the leaderboard.
Sweden's Carola, the lady who sticks her head out of the car window on
the motorway, charges into the final as my number one.
Slightly more interestingly, she is closely followed by that sexual
siren Elena of Skopje. Wailing Bulgaria scrape through, as do Poland.
Also it looks like it may well be a happy night for the band who condone
evil in all forms, Lordi. Some acts that Lordi must condone and I predict
will fail to make it through hail from the Netherlands, Belarus, Monaco,
Ireland, and the usual crowning turd in the waterpipe from Lithuania.
----
Well, quite frankly I failed this year. I only predicted five of the
ten qualifiers which is a poor show. Armenia, Ukraine, Turkey, Lithuania
& Irleand made it through, when I thought they woudl be jammed at
the bottom of the bargain basement bin for years to come. Still the hasn't
perturbed me from having a pop at the final here. |
