|On this page you can see my predictions for
the semi-final 2006, a semi-final which was difficult to give out many points,
cos too many of the songs are pants.
I looked almost scientifically at each songs' chances according to the subjective factors of quality, position in the draw, and it's expected performance live. From these factors I apportioned each song a percentage chance of getting points 0-12. Lost yet? I was.
Allied to this, and slightly more scientifically, I calculated the geographical nature of tele-voting, subject to national boundaries, past voting trends, and apportioning a percentage chance of a certain nation voting for another, to a total of 100% for each nation.
For example the chance of Austria voting for Portugal was 2.5%, whereas the chance of Portugal voting for Andorra was calculated at 7.5%. Simple.
From these two spreadsheets I was able to calculate the chances of any one nation voting for any one song at any one point in the voting procedures. The result was the points table below. I realise it's not perfect, but it sounds good. (I got last year Semi-finalist winner right, something which not many other Eurogeeks predicted, to be honest).
And it didn't spring much of a surprise at the top of the leaderboard.
Sweden's Carola, the lady who sticks her head out of the car window on
the motorway, charges into the final as my number one.
Well, quite frankly I failed this year. I only predicted five of the ten qualifiers which is a poor show. Armenia, Ukraine, Turkey, Lithuania & Irleand made it through, when I thought they woudl be jammed at the bottom of the bargain basement bin for years to come. Still the hasn't perturbed me from having a pop at the final here.
|197 Sweden||188 FYROM||187 Russia|
|150 Belgium||146 Finland||135 Bosnia|
|125 Poland||124 Iceland||112 Estonia|
|111 Bulgaria||102 Armenia||96 Ukraine|
|87 Albania||74 Andorra||68 Slovenia|
|68 Turkey||53 Netherlands||39 Monaco|
|35 Cyprus||34 Lithuania||32 Portugal|
|24 Ireland||17 Belarus|