On this page you can see my predictions for the semi-final 2006, a semi-final which was difficult to give out many points, cos too many of the songs are pants.
I looked almost scientifically at each songs' chances according to the subjective factors of quality, position in the draw, and it's expected performance live. From these factors I apportioned each song a percentage chance of getting points 0-12. Lost yet? I was.
Allied to this, and slightly more scientifically, I calculated the geographical nature of tele-voting, subject to national boundaries, past voting trends, and apportioning a percentage chance of a certain nation voting for another, to a total of 100% for each nation.
For example the chance of Austria voting for Portugal was 2.5%, whereas the chance of Portugal voting for Andorra was calculated at 7.5%.  Simple.
From these two spreadsheets I was able to calculate the chances of any one nation voting for any one song at any one point in the voting procedures. The result was the points table below. I realise it's not perfect, but it sounds good. (I got last year Semi-finalist winner right, something which not many other Eurogeeks predicted, to be honest).

And it didn't spring much of a surprise at the top of the leaderboard. Sweden's Carola, the lady who sticks her head out of the car window on the motorway, charges into the final as my number one.
 Slightly more interestingly, she is closely followed by that sexual siren Elena of Skopje. Wailing Bulgaria scrape through, as do Poland. Also it looks like it may well be a happy night for the band who condone evil in all forms, Lordi. Some acts that Lordi must condone and I predict will fail to make it through hail from the Netherlands, Belarus, Monaco, Ireland, and the usual crowning turd in the waterpipe from Lithuania.


Well, quite frankly I failed this year. I only predicted five of the ten qualifiers which is a poor show. Armenia, Ukraine, Turkey, Lithuania & Irleand made it through, when I thought they woudl be jammed at the bottom of the bargain basement bin for years to come. Still the hasn't perturbed me from having a pop at the final here.

197 Sweden 188  FYROM 187 Russia
150 Belgium 146 Finland 135 Bosnia
125 Poland 124 Iceland 112 Estonia
111 Bulgaria 102 Armenia 96 Ukraine
87 Albania 74 Andorra 68 Slovenia
68 Turkey 53 Netherlands 39 Monaco
35 Cyprus 34 Lithuania 32 Portugal
24 Ireland 17 Belarus